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Money & Market Power
Capex, valuations, circular deals and who actually gets paid.
- 001AI Capex 2026: The $725B Bet With No Payback MathFour hyperscalers plan roughly $725B of capex in 2026, up 77% on 2025. Here is where the money goes, what it earns today, and the three numbers to watch.$725B
- 002AI Capex Is in the GDP Data. The Payoff Is NotAI investment drove 39% of US GDP growth in early 2025. The productivity return has not arrived. Whether that is a lag or an absence, and how to tell.39%
- 003AI Circular Deals: Who Actually Pays Whom, and How MuchNvidia's up to $100B commitment to OpenAI was finalised at $30B. A map of the AI circular deals: what is signed, what is only intent, and why it matters.$100B → $30B
- 004AI Cost Management: Cheap Tokens, Bigger AI BillsToken prices fell as fast as 40x a year, yet 93% of enterprises blew past their AI budgets in 2026. Here is the arithmetic behind the bigger invoice.5x
- 005AI Debt Issuance: The Credit Story Behind the BuildAI-related debt issuance is on track for roughly $570B in 2026. Hyperscaler bond issuance quadrupled. How the build is being funded, and why it changed.~$570B
- 006AI Took 61% of Venture Capital. What Happens to OthersAI startups took 61% of global venture funding in 2025, up from 30% in 2022. What that concentration does to hiring, valuations and exits outside AI.61%
- 007Alphabet's $80B Equity Raise: Why Cash Ran ShortAlphabet raised $80 billion in equity in June 2026. Its filings show free cash flow fell 82% in six months and buybacks stopped at $0. What that signals.82%
- 008Anthropic IPO: The Enterprise Listing That Resets PricingAnthropic filed confidentially on 1 June 2026 for an October listing. A $47B run rate, 85% enterprise revenue, and why the mix matters more than the number.$47B
- 009CoreWeave Debt: $35.6B and Where the Stress SitsCoreWeave carries $35.6B of debt against a $104B backlog. The spread ladder from SOFR plus 225 to plus 550 shows exactly where lenders price the risk.$35.6B
- 010Cursor at $2B ARR: Fastest SaaS Ever or Most Fragile?Cursor doubled revenue in three months to $2B ARR and sought funding near $50B. The growth is real. So is the question about whether the moat is.$2B
- 011Dot-Com vs AI Bubble: Six Metrics Where It Breaks DownEveryone compares 2026 to 2000. On six metrics, from P/E ratios to profitability, the comparison mostly fails. Here is the one place it does hold.60x vs 23x
- 012Down Rounds: How to Read an AI Cap Table in 2026Structured terms are reappearing in AI rounds priced at extreme multiples. What liquidation preferences, ratchets and participation actually do to your equity.1x
- 013GenAI ROI: Why 95% of Pilots Show No Return, and Who DoesMIT found 95% of GenAI pilots show no measurable P&L return. What the 5% did differently, where the money is really being made, and how to measure your own.95%
- 014GPU Depreciation: The $176B Accounting Question in AIHyperscalers depreciate AI hardware over 5 to 6 years. One investor puts the resulting overstatement at $176B through 2028. Both sides of the argument, checked.$176B
- 015Inference Costs Are Rising. The Software Margin MythClassic software had near-zero marginal cost. AI does not. Why per-token price cuts have not produced falling bills, and what it means for AI gross margins.Rising
- 016Is Your AI Startup a Feature? The Kill Zone TestModel providers keep absorbing capabilities that were standalone products a year earlier. Five questions to test whether your product survives the next release.~35%
- 017OpenAI IPO: What a Delay Past 2026 Actually SignalsOpenAI filed confidentially in June 2026, then weighed a delay rather than list below $1T. What the numbers say about why, and what each outcome means.$852B
- 018SaaS Multiples in an AI Capex Slowdown: 3 ScenariosAI capex adds roughly 140 basis points to US growth in 2026. A slowdown would lift SaaS multiples on one side and crush them on the other. Three scenarios.140bp
- 019Sovereign AI Funds: $30B and the Buyer of Last ResortSovereign AI spending pushed $30 billion through Nvidia alone in fiscal 2026. Here is what state programmes actually buy, and what it changes for vendors.$30B+
- 020The $662B Data Centre Leases Off Big Tech Balance SheetsMoody's found $969B in hyperscaler lease commitments, $662B of it not yet on any balance sheet. What the rule is, why it matters, and when it arrives.$969B
- 021The AI Chip Selloff: Dress Rehearsal or False Alarm?Chip and AI hardware stocks fell sharply in late July 2026 and recovered within a week. Fast recoveries signal conviction or complacency. Five indicators.5 days
- 022The AI Revenue Leaderboard: Who Has Real RevenueCommitments, run rates and bookings get reported as if interchangeable. A ranking by revenue quality rather than headline number, with what each figure means.~$47B
- 023The IMF Warned on AI Valuations. The Optimists AnsweredThe IMF flagged correction risk in AI-exporting economies. Supporters argue compute scarcity makes the spending rational. Both cases, and what would settle it.Jul 2026
- 024The SaaSpocalypse: How Software Lost Its Valuation PremiumEarly 2026 erased hundreds of billions in software market cap on the bet that AI replaces SaaS. What happened, and whether the repricing was rational.Q1 2026
- 025Vendor Financing in AI: The Lucent and Nortel LessonSuppliers lending customers money to buy their products inflated telecom revenue before 2001. Similar structures now appear across AI. The mechanics compared.2001